Ether Sale: A Statistical Overview

The first two weeks of the Ether sale have ended and to date 25000BTC or more From the sale of over 50 million ETH. This will be the largest crypto token sale to date, with two donations positioning ETH as a token. 8th highest total valueeven beat out the beloved Dogecoin 17.3MUSDvs$17.3 million vs. 15.5M. A total of 6,670 trades were made, with values ​​ranging from a low of 0.01 BTC to a high of 500 BTC, with purchases continuing to occur every hour. Additionally, the Ether sale marks the largest use of multisig to date. Through our sales, Percentage of total BTC stored in multisig It has jumped from 0.23% to 0.41% in the past two weeks alone. This means that 3 out of 4 private keys split between different sites control 45% of all BTC stored in multisig addresses in existence.

The purpose of this post is to provide an overview of sales statistics to date. The data was taken yesterday when there were 24000 BTC, assuming all purchases were 2000 ETH / BTC (this assumption is not strictly true, but the error term is small enough (so it can be safely discounted). first, this spreadsheetwhich shows Ether purchases over time.

Individual spikes are per block. This graph shows that the distribution is largely split into two clusters, one near the beginning of the sale and one near the end of the full discount period. Once the new price level of 1970 ETH/BTC (currently 1910 ETH/BTC) begins, purchases will drop sharply. In theory, purchasing near the end of the full discount period is a more optimal strategy according to a naive game theory model. If you buy near the end of the full discount period, you’ll get the same price as the first person, but with the added benefit of getting more information. This means that you will be able to see more accurately the exact percentage of all his ETH that you have purchased. We plan to obtain the following. Therefore, the fact that the majority of purchases were made in the end indicates that Ether buyers are generally a fairly sophisticated audience. I think that’s the way it should be if he manages to exchange his hard-earned BTC for a crypto token with some kind of backing. The concept of “general purpose consensus computing.”

Of course, it’s important to note that there are reasons to buy in the first place as well.Some people are participating in the sale because they want to support the project, and some of the big buyers may be Priming effect With that in mind, putting a large amount of money (such as a banknote) into the tip jar initially increases the total amount received because it creates the impression that the recipient is important and deserving of more and larger donations.

At this point, flows are expected to trend downward, stabilize over the next few days, and see a final spike on day 42. The graph below shows the cumulative Ether sold to this point.

Another interesting thing to analyze is the distribution of purchases. this spreadsheet contains a purchase list organized by purchase size. The maximum purchase amount at one time was 500 BTC (1 million ether), followed by 466 BTC (933,580 ETH), and 330 BTC (660,360 ETH).is not accepting requests Organizing purchases by size results in the following two graphs. One is the purchase quantity and the other is the amount of ETH purchased per purchase size.

Please note that this only applies to purchases. There is also another slice of ether that will be distributed soon. This is a donation. The portion of the donation scheduled to be distributed is Spreadsheet; the largest one is equivalent to 0.922% of all Ether purchased (i.e. 0.369% of the total supply after 5 years) and the smallest one is 0.004%, with a total of 81 people receiving a share. If you are one of the recipients, you will be contacted immediately. If not, there is still her second slice whose allocation has not been determined.

Distribution and Gini index

As a final set of interesting statistics, we calculated three Gini indices.

  • Ether Buyer Gini Index: 0.832207
  • Gini index of donations: 0.599638
  • Gini index for the entire set: 0.836251

The Gini index is a common measure of inequality. The Gini index is calculated by drawing a graph where both axes go from 0% to 100% and then drawing a line where the Y coordinate at a particular X coordinate is calculated as a fraction of all income (or assets). I will. Owned by the bottom X percent of the population. The area between this curve and the diagonal (the fraction of the area of ​​the entire triangle below the diagonal) is the Gini index.

In an ideal society of perfect equality, the coefficient would be zero. Since the bottom X% of the population obviously has X% more wealth than the other X% of the population, the cumulative wealth distribution graph is just a diagonal, and the area between the graph and the diagonal is It will be. becomes zero. In the opposite scenario, the ultimate dictatorship where one person controls everything, the bottom X% would have absolutely nothing and one last girlfriend would own everything. Therefore, the area between that curve and the diagonal is equal to the entire area under the diagonal, and the coefficient is exactly 1. Most real-world scenarios lie somewhere between these two.

Note that the Gini coefficient for wealth and the Gini coefficient for income are different. One measures how much people have, and the other measures the rate at which people receive it.because Savings are proportional to income, the coefficient for wealth tends to be higher.For example, the Gini coefficient of wealth in the United States is 0.801, the global coefficient is 0.804.Given that the Gini coefficient in the real world measures inequality of access to resources, and the Gini coefficient in the circulation of cryptocurrencies arises from both resource inequality and profit inequality (for those who care a little about Ethereum) 0.836 is a pretty decent result – as a point of comparison, Bitcoin’s Gini coefficient is The measured value is 0.877.His current top 100 ETH holders account for 45.7% of all ETH, a lower percentage than the top 100 holders. mainstream altcoinsthat statistic tends to be between 55% and 70%.

Of course, these last two comparisons are misleading. The Ethereum ecosystem has not yet really started operating, and services like exchanges that centralize control of currency units in a few wallets without centralizing legal ownership will eventually lead to the Gini Index and Gini This would artificially inflate both indices. Top 100 scores of real-world cryptocurrency networks. Once Ethereum launches, accurately estimating the Gini index may prove impossible. This is because large amounts of ether are stored within decentralized applications that run any Turing-complete application. often mathematically incomprehensiblea set of rules on how to withdraw Ether.

There are still 28 days left until the sale. We can’t expect much from this remaining period, but anything is possible. With organizational issues resolved, the organization is preparing to significantly scale up development and is on a fast track to finally finalizing the Ethereum code and launching the genesis block. ETA Winter 2014-2015.

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