There are only six months until the US election. How will the race go and what will happen next? | 2024 US Election News

The crackdown on the pro-Palestinian student movement, Donald Trump’s hush-money criminal trial, and political conflicts over foreign aid and immigration have dominated US headlines in recent weeks.

The issues are shining a spotlight on deep divisions in the country as we approach what is expected to be a fierce battle for the White House between Democratic incumbent President Joe Biden and his Republican predecessor Trump.

But for most people across the country, the Nov. 5 presidential election, exactly six months from Sunday, is still not on their minds.

“Most people in the United States still don’t tune in to television. Despite you and me and the political class, the vast majority of Americans don’t pay attention to elections,” says Northwestern University Policy Analysis.・Communication professor Eric Nisbet said. University.

“People won’t tune in until September,” he told NDMT. “However, at this point, it’s important to get your narrative out there. It’s important to ground and mobilize.”

Awareness of “Election 2.0”

Most polls show a close race between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump as the election draws near, and experts say the battle is a tight race between the candidates in key battleground states such as Michigan, Georgia and Nevada. He says it likely depends on how they fight.

But there is also widespread frustration that the choices made this election cycle are the same as in 2020, when Biden defeated Trump and won the White House.

Recent Pew Research Center poll It found that nearly half of all registered voters said they would replace both Biden and Trump with their ballots if they could.

The poll found that about two-thirds of respondents said they had little or no confidence that Mr. Biden was fit to serve as president, while a similar number said that Mr. They answered that they did not believe that they would act ethically.

“It’s Elections 2.0,” said Jean Lilly, a political science professor at American University in Washington, D.C.

“I think that creates a disincentive to vote and it feeds back into campaigns to convince people that there is a reason to vote, even if it’s the same choice.”

youth vote

The message for the Biden campaign so far has been that a vote for the Democratic incumbent is a vote for democratic ideals. “Democracy is on the ballot. Your freedom is on the ballot,” Biden said in January.

But that message failed to resonate with key segments of the Democratic Party’s base, angered by the Biden administration’s clear support for Israel during the Gaza war.

A recent wave of pro-Palestinian protests on college campuses has highlighted generational rifts over U.S.-Israel relations, which could, in turn, pose serious problems for Biden as he seeks youth votes in November. There is sex.

In 2020, Biden won about 60% support among voters ages 18 to 29.

but, Recent CNN poll Mr. Biden trails Mr. Trump 51% to 40% among voters under 35, and experts say a lack of enthusiasm among younger voters could cause problems.

“We know how college students feel,” said Hasan Pyarari, chairman of the Muslim Caucus of American College Democrats, the university wing of the Democratic Party.

If Biden doesn’t change his Middle East policy, Pyarari added on Nov. 5, “and I can tell you that too many people will stay home.” “I don’t think people will switch to Trump, but I’m sure they won’t vote for him.”

Nisbett of Northwestern University said the Biden campaign will need to focus on “getting order in the Democratic House” in the coming months before appealing to the nation’s relatively small number of undecided voters.

For example, protests at the Democratic National Convention could hurt him. Democratic lawmakers are expected to gather in Chicago in August to formally endorse Biden as their 2024 nominee.

“The Democratic Party, at least the Biden team, doesn’t want any discord within the party. [party] Because the visuals are bad,” Nisbet said.

Meanwhile, on the Republican side, Trump’s campaign is unfolding against a backdrop of unprecedented legal turmoil.

The former president faces four separate criminal cases, including an ongoing trial in New York for allegedly falsifying business records related to hush-money payments to adult film stars.

The indictments have so far had little effect on reducing Trump’s support among Republican voters, although some polls suggest that Trump has been convicted in either case. In that case, a significant number of American voters would not vote for Trump.

Trump is expected to be approved as the 2024 Republican nominee at the Republican convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, in July.

“The convention continues throughout the summer, but there usually isn’t a lot of campaign activity,” said American University’s Lilly.

But this year may be different, given President Trump’s court hearings and the pressure on Biden over the Gaza war. “These can be unusual bumps that give campaigns the opportunity to do more in terms of advertising,” she said.

major issues

Both Leary and Nisbett said the U.S. economy has always been a key issue in elections and will continue to be a focus of campaigning in the coming months.

Despite positive economic indicators, recent polls suggest that many Americans are worse off now than they were when President Trump was in the White House.

“For whatever reason – maybe it’s economics, maybe it’s memory bias – there’s a big gap that people overall view then-President Trump more favorably than current President Biden. Yes,” Nisbet said.

He added that the economy is hurting Biden among Latino and Black voters and young people, both key demographics of the Democratic Party.

“Trump will want to talk about how bad the economy is,” Nisbet said, while Biden’s team will instead “try to change the conversation” and pivot to other issues. Ta.

This includes access to abortion. Biden has made protecting access to reproductive health care a centerpiece of his re-election campaign, repeatedly criticizing Trump and Republicans who support abortion restrictions.

In 2022, under the Trump administration, the U.S. Supreme Court will form a conservative “supermajority” that will overturn Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 decision that established abortion as a constitutional right. Permitted.

Eliminating Roe has been a conservative priority for decades, and several Republican-led states have since placed strict restrictions on abortion.

As the presidential campaign moves into the fall in September and October, “there will be a lot of focus on the abortion issue and Trump’s role in it, and the Republican Party and its plan,” Lilley said. .

Trump and Biden spar during the final debate of the 2020 presidential election in Nashville, Tennessee, on October 22, 2020. [Morry Gash/Pool via Reuters]

discussion schedule

This is when the first debate between Biden and Trump could take place.

Commission on Presidential Debates repeated On Wednesday, it was announced that the first televised showdown between the candidates would take place on September 16, confirming the date announced late last year.

The announcement came after Trump’s team asked the committee to move up the schedule.

Uncertainty surrounding the 2024 debate has increased, especially as President Trump avoided participating in debates during the Republican primary process. But last week, both Biden and Trump said they were open to it.

“Honestly, I don’t know who wants it, but this is an American tradition. If we didn’t have presidential debates, American democracy would be really hurt,” Nesbitt said.

“This is a major aspect of tradition in the United States. And even if holding a presidential debate doesn’t change anyone’s mind, and it rarely does, it’s important for Americans to know at least two of their own.” I think it’s important to hear candidates express their views.”

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