5 takeaways from Putin’s victory in Russia

Russian President Vladimir V. Putin won a three-day staged presidential vote that ended on Sunday, and his landslide victory meant he was able to fulfill his people’s mandate to act as necessary on the Ukraine war and a range of domestic issues. He declared that he was expressing his feelings and stirred up anxiety. Russians are talking about what will happen next.

Putin said the vote expressed Russia’s desire for “domestic integration” that would allow it to “act effectively on the front lines” in other areas, such as the economy.

The government dismissed protests organized by Russia’s embattled opposition, where people rushed to polling stations at midday to show their opposition. “The provocation at the polling station was nothing more than a mosquito bite,” said a correspondent for state-run Russia 24 Channel. Official commentators suggested that the line signaled an eagerness to participate in democracy.

Putin, 71, will be in office until at least 2030 and will be in office for a fifth term in a country where the constitution ostensibly limits presidential terms to two. The vote, the first since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, was aimed at both creating public commitment to the war and restoring Putin’s image as an embodiment of stability. There is. Still, Russians are somewhat nervous about what changes this vote will bring.

Here are five takeaways.

There is a pattern to presidential voting involving Mr. Putin, with his results improving each time. He received 63.6% of the vote in 2012 and 76.7% in 2018 after his presidential term was extended to six years. Experts had expected the Kremlin to score around 80 percent this time, but Mr. Putin received an even higher percentage, closer to 90 percent, although the tally was not yet final.

The loyal opposition barely registered. None of his three other candidates allowed to vote received more than 5% of the vote.

Russia’s presidential vote has long served as a way to give the appearance of legitimacy to the entire system. But a victory by such a wide margin risks undermining the constitutional changes that will allow Putin to remain in the Kremlin until 2036, when he will be 83 years old. In an increasingly authoritarian Kremlin, questions may arise as to why Russia needs such game-playing.

Mr. Putin has always sought to project an image of political stability and control, and the carefully planned presidential vote is designed to shine through. However, this time there were three events related to opposition politics that tarnished that image.

The first time was in January, when thousands of Russians from across the country lined up to sign petitions needed to get Boris Nadezhdin, a previously low-profile politician who opposes the war in Ukraine, on the ballot. . The Kremlin was shunning him.

And Mr. Putin’s staunchest political opponent, Alexei A. Navalny, died suddenly in an Arctic prison in February. Thousands of mourners at his funeral in Moscow spoke out against Putin and the war, and mourners continued to place flowers at his grave during the vote.

Navalny’s group had supported plans for voters to gather in large numbers at noon in a silent protest against Mr. Putin and the war. Navalny’s widow Yulia Navalnaya, who voted at the Russian embassy in Berlin, said she wrote her husband’s name on her ballot and waited in long lines as part of her protest. I thanked the people of

But it’s hard to wonder how this protest could lead to any kind of sustained movement, especially in the face of repressive measures that have become steadily tougher since the beginning of the Ukraine war in February 2022. It was difficult. Mr. Putin’s government, for example, has detained hundreds of people. People publicly mourned Navalny.

Putin’s campaign and the vote itself have been shaped by the war. His announcement in December that he would seek another term was in response to questions from veterans who had campaigned for his candidacy. The election symbol, the blue, white and red check mark on the Russian flag, resembled the V, which is sometimes used to show support for Russian soldiers.

The vote was held in the occupied territories of Ukraine, even though Russia does not have full control of the four annexed regions. There was also an element of coercion, with poll workers sometimes accompanied by armed soldiers taking ballot boxes into people’s homes. In the occupied territories, Putin’s margin of victory was even higher than in Russia itself.

Putin has never admitted that he started the war by invading Ukraine. Instead, he said, he was forced to launch a “special military operation” to prevent Western powers from using Ukraine as a Trojan horse to weaken Russia.

“We are forced to take up arms and literally defend the interests of our people,” he said of the election’s turnout, which was reported to be more than 74 percent of the more than 112 million registered voters. It’s because of the fact that there are.” , our people. “

In his annual address to the nation in February, a major campaign speech, Mr. Putin promised both guns and butter, saying Russia would invest in long-standing goals such as the economy, infrastructure and revitalizing the Russian state, while He claimed that he could pursue his war aims. population.

According to government statistics, an estimated 40% of public spending goes to military spending, leading to economic growth of 3.6% in 2023. Production of munitions and other supplies is booming.

Putin has also suggested that military veterans should form the core of a “new elite” running the country. Because their military service proves their contribution to Russia’s best interests. The proposal is expected to accelerate the trend of civil servants expressing strong patriotism, especially as Mr. Putin seeks to replace older allies with younger generations.

Presidential elections are a time when the Kremlin habitually introduces unpopular policies. For example, starting in 2018, Putin raised his retirement age. Russians speculate that new military mobilization and increased domestic repression could be forthcoming.

Putin has repeatedly denied any need for further mobilization, but recent small territorial gains in eastern Ukraine are believed to have resulted in tens of thousands of casualties. Putin has signaled he is open to peace talks, but so far neither side has shown much flexibility.

Russia has annexed more than 18 percent of Ukraine’s territory, and the front has been stationary for months. A new Russian offensive is expected to take place during the warm, dry summer, and the Russian military may seek to expand its control ahead of further negotiations.

Ekaterina Shulman, a Russian political scientist living in exile in Berlin, said: “The decisions are likely to be more about war than peace, military rather than social or economic.”

Milana Mazaeva Contributed to the report.

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