NEW DELHI, Apr 03 (IPS) – Indian agriculture would be better able to survive the monsoon if accurate weather and climate predictions were proactively provided to farmers, according to the results of a new experimental study conducted by the University of Chicago. There is no need to bet.
About 70 to 90 percent of the total annual rainfall in much of India, a major agricultural producer, occurs during the monsoon period from June to September, although the onset and amount of the monsoon varies widely. It is difficult to predict for farmers, the paper said. Research published on February 26, 2024; As a non-peer-reviewed research paper.
While the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is developing an advanced monsoon forecasting system, researchers at the Indian Meteorological Department’s Institute of Energy Policy university The Chicago researchers found that farmers in southern Telengana, where the survey was conducted, tended to be less reliant on IMD and other forecasts.
“For some reason, very few of the farmers we spoke to in Telengana were using forecasts about the onset of the local monsoon to inform their planting decisions,” says Telengana University. said Amir Zina, a senior fellow at the Energy Policy Institute. A Chicago native and study author.
Indian farmers have traditionally relied on official forecasts published by the IMD, which was founded in 1875, but the Chicago team relied on forecast data produced by the Potsdam Institute. Climate impact research (PIK).
“The PIK model generates a probability distribution of potential onset dates, which can be summarized as a range of likely onset dates, making it easier for farmers to understand,” the study states. .
“This particular study focuses on a new approach to predicting the onset of the Indian summer monsoon in the Telangana region of southern India, which allows us to predict the onset of the monsoon across India four to six weeks in advance. “Yes,” said study co-author Fiona Brullig. Assistant Professor of E.University of Chicago Energy Policy Institute.
P.I.K.focuses on India’s staple crops under its Climate Capacity Program covering East Africa, Peru and India, utilizing a semi-empirical modeling framework and combining them with satellite remote sensing Earth observation data.
In this experimental study, PIK forecasting allowed farmers to make early decisions on key inputs such as crop type, labor supply, and fertilizer purchases, significantly increasing profitability. “PIK’s forecasts were particularly accurate over the state of Telangana, where the experiment took place,” Barlig said.
Burlig and her team studied how farmers in 250 villages in Telangana state changed their cropping strategies after becoming confident that monsoon forecasts were accurate. Early monsoons usually mean a longer growing season, which is better suited for cash crops such as cotton, whereas later monsoons mean farmers decide to grow lower-value subsistence crops like paddy. researchers said.
“This is proof that IMD has measured how important the task of forecasting is for Indian farmers, and we think about how we can measure even more benefits of other types of forecasting with IMD that farmers are using. All advances in IMD should be validated and driven by this fundamental fact,” says Zina. SciDev.Net.
“Farmers are finding that climate change is making it increasingly difficult to predict the arrival of monsoons and other weather patterns,” Barlig says. “Our research, conducted in a region with low agricultural productivity, demonstrated how the new forecast can deliver accurate monsoon predictions even in a changing climate.”
As climate change increases weather variability, farmers are reluctant to take risks and typically tend to underinvest for the upcoming season, Burrig said. The team’s pre-season survey in Telangana found wide variation in farmers’ predictions about when the monsoon would arrive.
The study experimentally evaluated monsoon onset predictions in 250 villages, divided into a control group, a forecasting group that received information well in advance of monsoon onset, and a benchmark index insurance group.
Agricultural insurance reduces farmers’ risks but does not improve farmers’ information. According to research. Overall, farmers who received insurance increased their cultivation of land and investments in seeds, fertilizers, and other inputs by 12 percent compared to farmers who did not receive forecast information.
“The results of the experimental study are within the expected range,” said Arun Shankar, principal scientist at the Central Research Institute of Dryland Agriculture in Hyderabad. He said such research is important because resilience to climate change is highly dependent on increasing agricultural productivity through available water resources.
However, climate scientist Roxy Matthew Coll. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology; It said the University of Chicago study was “grossly outdated” because it was based on predictive models from before 2016. “Since then, IMD has transitioned to a dynamic and advanced ‘Climate Prediction System’ that provides both regional and pan-India forecasts in high resolution.”
“Potsdam’s models and projections are not based on a full-scale, dynamic system like the IMD Climate Prediction System and have limited applicability.” Colsaid the lead author of the IPCC report and former chair of the Indian Ocean Regional Panel. SciDev.Net.
Soma Sen Roy, IMD Scientist and World Meteorological Organization India Representative, said that IMD provides forecasts at all time scales, including nowcasting, intermediate range, extended range, seasonal forecasts, and long range forecasts throughout the year. He said he was announcing it. “These forecasts are not specifically related to the monsoon for which special forecasts are issued.”
“Our study highlights that all the investments and improvements IMD has made in recent years and continues to make are beneficial and important to farmers,” said Gina.
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